2026 Termite Forecast For Bay Area Homes: Weather, Moisture, And What To Watch This Year

About the Author: Jameson Elam is the owner and operator of Good Sense Termite, serving Alameda, Santa Clara, San Mateo, and Santa Cruz counties. With over 14 years of hands-on experience in the termite control industry, Jameson specializes in thorough inspections, accurate diagnostics, and long-term solutions tailored to California homes. His deep knowledge of local termite behavior and building structures has made Good Sense Termite a trusted name for homeowners and real estate professionals alike.

Why The Weather Forecast Belongs In Your Termite Plan

Most people think of termites as a “someday” problem. Weather feels immediate. Storms, dry spells, leaks, and soggy soil are front of mind.

The truth is, these two are tied together.

Soil moisture, temperature swings, and storm patterns all change how active termite colonies are and where they move. Some years quietly load the soil with moisture, then the next warm season is full of swarm calls. Other years, a dry winter drives termites deeper into the ground and toward the few places that still have water: around foundations, plumbing, and irrigation.

Heading into 2026, the big picture is:

• A weak La Niña pattern is favored for this winter, with conditions expected to shift toward neutral by early spring.

• For California, recent La Niña events and ENSO shifts have produced mixed results, with some regions dry and others hammered by storms and atmospheric rivers.

In other words: expect swings. And swings are exactly what termites like.

This post breaks down what this means for Bay Area homes and how to use 2026 to get a step ahead rather than wait for the next surprise swarm.

How Weather Patterns Shape Termite Risk

Termites respond less to dates on a calendar and more to:

• Moisture in the soil

• Temperature in and around structures

• How long wood stays damp

• Where water collects and drains

A few key patterns to keep in mind:

• Wet stretches followed by warm spells

  Soaked soil plus a quick warm up is prime time for Subterranean termite movement and swarming.

• Dry winters with uneven storms

  If the region leans dry but still sees heavy storm bursts or atmospheric rivers, you can end up with very wet pockets around certain homes while nearby areas stay dry.

• Neutral or weak ENSO years

  The old “El Niño wet, La Niña dry” rule is not as reliable as it used to be. Short term storm tracks and atmospheric rivers now play a bigger role in who gets soaked and who stays dry in California.

For termites, what matters is not the label on the winter. It is whether soil around your house stays damp, how often water hits your siding, and how stressed your wood becomes over time.

What 2026 Conditions Likely Mean For Bay Area Homes

Forecasts going into winter 2025–26 point to:

• A decent chance of weak La Niña conditions in early winter

• A shift toward neutral conditions by late winter and early spring

• Ongoing uncertainty around how many major storm systems actually reach the Bay Area.

Layer that on top of what we have seen in recent years:

• Intense single storm events that cause local flooding, roof leaks, and water damage, even in years that are “average” overall.

• Ongoing shifts in seasonal pest activity as temperatures stay warmer for longer parts of the year

For Bay Area homes, that translates to:

• More importance on drainage and grading around the house

• Higher risk in crawlspaces or slabs that stay wet under parts of the home

• A longer window each year where termites can stay active

It is less about one “bad storm” and more about how your property handles a series of weird seasons.

High Risk Windows In 2026

Termites do not punch a time clock, but there are still patterns worth planning around.

Late Winter To Early Spring (Feb–April)

• Soil starts to warm up

• Any moisture from storms or heavy rain is still in the ground

• Subterranean colonies are ready to expand when conditions allow

This is a good time to:

• Have your crawlspace checked for damp soil, standing water, and mud tubes

• Look for new cracks, soft spots, or staining around lower walls and floors

• Address obvious drainage issues before spring growth hides everything

Spring To Early Summer (April–July)

• Swarm season ramps up, especially for Drywood termites in many parts of California

• Warm, calm days are when swarmers are most likely to show up inside

This is when you are most likely to see:

• Wings near windows, doors, and lights

• Frass collecting on sills or floors

• Active swarm events inside or just outside the structure

Late Summer To Fall

• In a drier year, termites follow moisture toward irrigation, shaded soil, and damp crawlspace zones

• In a stormy year, repeated heavy rain can keep risk high in the same spots that were already vulnerable

This is a good time to check:

• Areas near planters, decks, and steps that sit close to grade

• The “wet side” of the house where downspouts discharge or soil stays dark after other areas dry

2026 Termite Checklist: What Homeowners Can Do Month By Month

You do not need a second job managing termites. A simple routine can help.

In The Next 30 Days

• Walk around the outside after a good rain

  • Note where water pools

  • Look for soil that sits high against stucco or siding

• Look under sinks and around toilets

  • Check for old stains or active drips

  • Note any rooms where floors feel a little off

• Gather any old termite reports or repair invoices so you know your starting point

Before Spring Swarm Season

• Schedule a full inspection if it has been more than 1–2 years, or if your last report had access limits

• Ask specifically about:

  • Crawlspace conditions

  • Soil contact with wood

  • Past moisture issues under bathrooms and kitchens

• Fix easy items:

  • Downspout extensions

  • Trimming plants away from vents and siding

  • Clearing loose wood debris from under and around the house

During Spring And Early Summer

• Watch for:

  • Wings on sills

  • Frass in repeat spots

  • Mud tubes in garages or along foundation walls

• If you see signs, document with photos and call for a targeted inspection instead of guessing

By The End Of The Year

• Recheck the “usual problem areas”

  • That one bathroom

  • That one side yard

  • That one sagging hallway

• Decide if you want ongoing warranty coverage, periodic inspections, or both

How Good Sense Termite Uses Weather And Microclimate In Inspections

We do not look at your house in isolation. We consider:

• Recent weather patterns for your part of the Bay Area

• How your lot handles water in big storms

• Which sides of the home get shade, sun, and fog

• What your crawlspace or slab has already been through

During an inspection we:

• Check for actual termite activity, not just conditions

• Compare what we see with how the house sits on the property

• Explain why certain sides, rooms, or corners are more at risk this year

For homeowners who are not in active escrow, we provide these inspections at no cost. If your home is in escrow, we offer fee based inspections that meet real estate requirements.

FAQ: Termites And 2026 Weather

Q: Is this La Niña year automatically good or bad for termites in the Bay Area?

Not automatically. Recent years show that weak La Niña or neutral conditions can still come with strong storms or relatively dry seasons in different parts of California. What matters most is how your specific property handles moisture and temperature swings.

Q: Should I only worry about termites in spring?

Spring and early summer are prime times for swarms, but colonies work year round inside wood and soil. Storm seasons and long wet or dry stretches also matter, even if you do not see insects.

Q: If this winter ends up dry, does that mean less termite risk?

Dry winters can reduce surface activity for a while, but they also push Subterranean termites to seek moisture in specific areas around homes. That can increase pressure on foundations, plumbing zones, and shaded sides of the house.

Q: When is the best time in 2026 to get an inspection?

Any time you see signs, call. If you are being proactive, late winter through early spring is ideal so you can fix conditions and plan before the main swarm season.

Final Thoughts: Use The Forecast As A Reminder, Not A Guess

Forecasts change. Termites do not care what the latest ENSO bulletin says. They respond to the conditions right around your home.

If you want 2026 to be the year you stop wondering what is going on under your floors or behind that one wall, an inspection and a simple plan go a long way.

Schedule an inspection with Good Sense Termite. We will look at your house the way termites do, then explain it the way humans need. It is just Good Sense.